Black Friday falls on Friday, November 27 this year, and most fashion stores have already set their discounts. What gets less planning is what comes next: the wave of returns that starts in late December and drags on through January. For a fashion e-shop, part of its Black Friday revenue will never really be banked. Managing Black Friday returns is part of the season’s performance, not an afterthought. This article explains how to sell more during Black Week without paying for it in January, with concrete actions you can start today.
Black Friday has stopped growing, but it is won online
Black Friday is no longer an ever-growing rush. According to Joko’s Black Week 2025 review for France (bank transactions from over one million people, November 21 to December 1, 2025), sales rose just 0.4% in value and fell 3% in volume. Participation dropped one point to 77% of French adults aged 18 to 64. Average spend per person reached €236 (about $264), €3 more than in 2024.
Two numbers matter for a fashion store:
- 55% of Black Week purchases were made online (Joko). The battle is fought on your website, not in-store.
- Fashion is declining: down 3% in value and 5% in volume in 2025, with stable spend per customer of €94 (about $105) (Joko, via E-Commerce Nation). Vinted took first place in the fashion ranking, while Shein fell to 9th.
For 2026, intentions remain cautious. According to Shopify’s “Holiday Retail 2026” study (Sapio Research, 2,000 French consumers surveyed in July 2026), shoppers plan to spend €151 (about $169) over the Black Friday weekend, up from €143 in 2025. 23% fill their cart and wait for a price drop, and 46% define a good deal as quality that exceeds their expectations, not just a low price.
In short: flat volumes, and shoppers who compare and want to be sure of what they buy. In that context, every sale that comes back in January weighs more heavily on the season’s margin.
Why Black Friday sets up the January returns wave
The returns peak follows the sales peak by a few weeks. In the US, where the pattern is best measured, returns jump 25% to 35% from December 26 compared with earlier in the month, according to Adobe Analytics (cited by Axios, December 2025). Americans even have a word for it: “Returnuary”.
Three factors put fashion on the front line:
- Gift buying: 62% of Black Week purchases in France are Christmas gifts (Joko). Buying clothes for someone else often means guessing their size.
- Impulse buying under pressure: countdowns, limited stock, deep discounts. Shoppers order fast, sometimes in several sizes “just to be safe”.
- The legal window: in the EU, shoppers have a 14-day withdrawal period after delivery. Many brands extend it for the holidays, which pushes November returns into January.
And the main cause of fashion returns hasn’t changed: size. In France, 64% of returns are due to size (47%) or fit (17%), according to BaBack data presented in October 2024. In the US, nearly 70% of online apparel returns are linked to size or fit, according to Coresight Research and Alvanon (May 2026). As Axios points out, clothing and shoes are the most returned gifts.
What a post-Black Friday return really costs
A return isn’t a cancelled sale at zero cost. You pay for return shipping, receiving, inspection, repackaging and restocking. According to estimates published in 2026 by French trade outlets Logistique E-commerce and Logistique Mode, the full cost of a return ranges from €8 to €20 (about $9 to $22), and €12 to €15 (about $13 to $17) for an item that can no longer be sold at full price, markdown included.
Black Friday makes the math worse:
- the item was sold at 20%, 30% or 40% off, so the remaining margin barely covers a return costing more than $17;
- when it comes back in January, the winter collection is going on sale, so it will be resold for even less, or not at all;
- meanwhile, the stock was tied up at the wrong time.
In the US, 19.3% of online sales were returned in 2025, and 23.4% for apparel (NRF / Happy Returns, October 2025; Coresight Research, May 2026). On a peak like Black Friday, failing to plan for returns means overestimating your real revenue.
7 ways to sell more on Black Friday without the returns hangover
1. Put size recommendation front and center on discounted products
A shopper torn between two sizes orders both, or orders the wrong one. A visible size recommendation right next to the size selector removes that doubt before add-to-cart. It’s the most direct lever on size-related returns: according to Fitle, its Fitle AI Reco solution delivers 40% fewer returns and a 4% to 6% lift in conversion. During Black Week, feature it on your most discounted product pages, where the traffic lands.
2. Show the product worn, on several body types
Another common reason for returns: the item received doesn’t look like what the shopper imagined. On-model visuals from several angles help shoppers picture the item and buy something they’re more likely to keep. The problem is time: organizing a photoshoot for every discounted item before late November is rarely possible. An AI photo studio creates on-model photos from your product photos in seconds, at a cost “70% lower” than a traditional shoot, according to Fitle.
3. Complete your product pages before the traffic arrives
Fit (slim, regular, oversized), length, fabric, the size the model is wearing, advice such as “true to size” or “size up”: this information answers the questions that otherwise lead to bracketing. According to Coresight Research and Alvanon (May 2026), about 40% of US shoppers have abandoned a purchase because product information wasn’t clear. An incomplete product page either loses the sale or creates the return.
4. Plan for gifts
Since most Black Week purchases are gifts, make exchanges easier than refunds: gift receipts without prices, simple free size exchanges, store credit valid during the sales. An exchange keeps the revenue; a refund loses it.
5. Manage bracketing without penalizing it
Spot orders of the same item in two or three sizes in your data. Rather than blocking them, offer size guidance at the cart stage. You keep the sale and avoid returns of the extra sizes.
6. Write a clear holiday returns policy
Extended window, deadline, conditions, any fees: display them on product pages and in the cart. A clear rule reassures and converts better than a vague promise. If you’re unsure about offering free returns, our article on the drawbacks of free returns walks through the options.
7. Measure Black Friday in net sales, not gross sales
Set up a “sales net of returns” metric at 60 days for Black Week, by category and by product, starting now. The items most often returned for size reasons are the ones where an inaccurate size chart or a thin product page costs you the most. That’s where to act before the January sales.
Your timeline to November 27
| When | What |
|---|---|
| This week | List the 20 to 50 items that will be most heavily discounted; check their product pages (fit, fabric, model’s size). |
| Week of November 16 | Turn on or highlight size recommendation on these products; add on-model visuals. |
| Week of November 23 | Publish your holiday returns policy; set up gift receipts and size exchanges; test the mobile journey. |
| November 27 to 30 | Track conversion and bracketing daily. |
| January | Analyze returns by reason and by product; fix product pages before the sales. |
The bottom line
Black Friday has stopped growing, but it remains a peak that is won online, with more demanding shoppers and a high share of gift purchases. For a fashion store, real performance is measured in January, once returns are in. The two most effective levers work before the purchase: helping shoppers choose the right size and showing them the right visual. To go further, read our complete guide to reducing size-related returns and our comparison of Shopify size recommendation apps.
Sources
- Joko, Black Week 2025 review, via FashionUnited / AFP, “Faible croissance du Black Friday en France en 2025, tirée par les ventes en ligne”, 12/10/2025: fashionunited.fr
- E-Commerce Nation, “Black Friday 2025 en France : Sephora et Amazon au top, Shein dégringole” (Joko study), 12/22/2025: ecommerce-nation.fr
- Shopify, “Holiday Retail 2026” (Sapio Research), via Tout sur mes finances, “Black Friday 2026 : les Français prévoient de dépenser 151 euros”, 10/07/2026: toutsurmesfinances.com
- Axios, “The Christmas gifts no one actually wants will be returned” (Adobe Analytics data), 12/25/2025: axios.com
- BaBack data, October 2024 (An-Hacking podcast, episode 8 #BFCM).
- NRF / Happy Returns, 2025 returns report, press release of 10/15/2025.
- Coresight Research / Alvanon, “Shifting the Size and Fit Paradigm”, via FashionUnited, May 2026.
- Logistique E-commerce (06/13/2026) and Logistique Mode (July 2026), cost of a return.
Euro amounts converted to dollars at €1 = $1.117 (October 27, 2026), rounded, for reference only.
